While there is clearly a “Brexit bonus” for most farmers from a weakening of the £, and while we know that support up to 2020 is guaranteed, the future beyond then is vastly uncertain.

It may help in the negotiations with the UK Government if all farming organisations could arrive at an agreed policy proposal, but it is unlikely that they could all agree to this extent.  The competing demands are probably just too diverse.

It is all too easy to think that four years away is just too long to plan for.  But as many loans and mortgages are for 5 to 25 years in length, the effects of changes in support will probably be very much felt in future farmers’ finances.

The range of options that the government may choose is very diverse.  While George Eustice has called for risk insurance-based support, and the TFA has a well-researched plan that has (also) moved away from direct support, it seems that organisations such as the National Trust want to move completely away from any farm support at all.

But however the debate moves you have to make the plans for your businesses that will take you forward.  The only certainty is that there will be substantial changes after 2020.  As prudent planners, I think you must assume that the BPS will disappear completely after 2020.

I am sure that there will be support, but I think it may well be politically impossible for the government to subsidise “asset-rich landowners”, while closing NHS hospital departments, and cutting our armed services.  I think any support you receive will be much more highly geared towards “environmental goods and services”.

Be Proactive and prepared by contacting Charles at charlesholt@fcgagric.com or your local FCG office to discuss the potential BREXIT implications for your business.